One in seven homeowners policies written in California last year did not go through a regular admitted carrier. The Insurance Information Institute’s new brief, State of the State: California Homeowners Insurance, puts the FAIR Plan and the excess-and-surplus market together at 15% of the 2025 book. Surplus-lines homeowners share averaged 1.1% from 2016 to 2020. In 2025 it was 7.3%. The FAIR Plan’s policy count is up 157% since 2022. Total exposure: $768 billion as of June.
That is not just canyon country. Surplus Line Association figures already had more than 300,000 surplus-lines homeowners policies in 2025, and about 90% of those were urban homes in metro areas — including neighborhoods that used to bind on a standard HO-3. Carriers spent a decade paying more than they took in (a 122.6 combined ratio from 2016–2025, per AM Best in the Triple-I report). The 2025 Los Angeles fires added more than $22 billion in insured claims. California’s median rate-filing wait is 225 days against a 35-day national median. When the admitted market cannot get a rate, the file lands on the FAIR Plan or on surplus paper.
The residual bill still moves on October 15: a 29.1% FAIR Plan increase (they asked for 35.8%). New FAIR Plan business is down 25% in 2026, which CDI calls an early SIS signal. State Farm has reopened limited new business in some distressed ZIP codes. Broader admitted appetite is coming back slowly. None of that makes a FAIR Plan policy into an HO-3. Fire-only still needs a wrap for water, theft, and liability.
If you are already on the FAIR Plan, budget October and let us try SIS carriers before you treat residual as permanent. If you are not, keep the admitted policy. Jumping to the FAIR Plan to “save money” is how people lose the coverage they still use. Call (619) 420-8600 or start a quote. We will tell you what the market will actually write.
Sources: Insurance Business, September 11, 2026; Insurance Information Institute, State of the State: California Homeowners Insurance.